Some six million voters are called to the polls on Wednesday, August 23, 2023 for presidential, legislative and local elections, with two names that stand out among the 11 candidates for the presidency: Emmerson Mnangagwa, candidate for his own succession, and opposition leader Nelson Chamisa, a young lawyer and pastor. This in a tense climate: the opposition has denounced a growing repression in the country that faces poverty and soaring inflation.
The presidential election is like a return match between the two main candidates: they had already opposed in 2018, in the first elections without Robert Mugabe, who ruled the country with an iron fist for 30 years.
The incumbent, Emmerson Mnangagwa, of the ruling Zanu-PF party, did not propose an electoral platform. He says his party’s record is good enough. It focuses on infrastructure such as the construction of schools, highways and bridges, proof that the president keeps his promises, his supporters believe.
But suspicions of corruption have tarnished the image of these national projects, also pushing the United States to impose sanctions on Zimbabwe. These are pointed out by the outgoing president Emmerson Mnangagwa, nicknamed «the crocodile», to explain the origin of the economic difficulties of the country.
As for Nelson Chamisa, his rival who had already narrowly lost in 2018, he launched his program just two weeks before the elections: some blame him for a lack of vision. His party, the Citizens’ Coalition for Change – or the «Triple C» – denounces intimidation and the banning of its meetings by the authorities: on August 3, a CCC activist was stoned to death by alleged supporters of the Zanu-PF.
Human Rights Watch has already predicted a “severely flawed electoral process.”
The president is elected by an absolute majority. A second round is organized only if no candidate wins 50% of the votes plus one.
Acute economic crisis with chronic hyperinflation
According to a recent poll, the economy and unemployment are the main concerns of voters. The country is facing an acute economic crisis. Among other evils, the Zimbabwean economy suffers from chronic hyperinflation. After soaring in 2020, inflation slowed in July, but it still officially exceeds 100%: some economists actually believe it is much higher than the official figure.
But there are other structural problems in the country. “About 90% of Zimbabweans are hired informally. And nearly 42% of the population lives in extreme poverty,” says Prosper Chitambara, development economist in Harare.
A former cereal granary in the region, Zimbabwe saw its agricultural production drop after the agrarian reform of the 2000s. After 2008, growth rebounded but other shocks shook the country’s economy. Prosper Chitambara cites the climate, the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Moreover, the environment is not conducive to investment: “Access to credit is difficult and very expensive. The reference interest rate is 150%.”
Infrastructure projects through Chinese loans
Prosper Chitambara says there are some good things for the economy: “There have been a number of investments in infrastructure projects, such as highways, dams and increased electricity generation.”
Four energy projects were undertaken thanks to a loan from China. In debt, Zimbabwe is not eligible for funding from international donors, such as the IMF and the World Bank, precisely because of arrears.
In addition to Western sanctions for suspected corruption, Harare is also subject to sanctions for rights violations.
The risk of electoral violence is low, analysts say. They predict a low turnout after a campaign that attracted little voters.
According to political analyst Ringisai Chikohomero, these elections take place when «there is no real enthusiasm and it is unusual during an election». This is mainly due to a «climate of intimidation» pushing «Zimbabweans to self-censor themselves for fear of reprisals».
These elections take place in a much different context from the previous ones in 2018: it was the first time that Zimbabweans did not have Robert Mugabe as their candidate.
Now, there is a weariness among voters, because the hope of change after nearly 30 years of power of Robert Mugabe has quickly fallen: Parliament passed laws that, according to human rights organizations, silence civil society and limit any criticism of the government. And among the voters there is a certain weariness, explains Ringisai Chikohomero.
