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MALI – The government of military transition organizes a constitutional referendum, 1st contested vote in a country in crisis

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Malians are called to the polls Sunday, June 18, 2023 to approve or not a new Constitution submitted by the junta in power to a referendum contested by a heterogeneous opposition and that a persistent insecurity compromises in many regions. This vote is the first organized by the colonels since they took by force in August 2020 the head of this country plunged in a deep multiform crisis, security, political and economic. It is a salient milestone on the road that is supposed to lead to a return of civilians to the management of affairs in March 2024, under the commitments made by the military itself.

Less than nine months before the announced term, strong uncertainties remain, including the place occupied by the current number one, Colonel Assimi Goïta, and the military in tomorrow’s Mali.

The Malians will vote on Sunday from 8:00 am (local and GMT) on the constitutional project with green ballots for yes, red for no. Results are expected within 72 hours.

The authorities have invested a great deal in favour of this reform which must compensate for the inadequacies of the 1992 Constitution, willingly designated as a factor of the bankruptcy of the State in the face of the multitude of crises, jihadi expansion, poverty, ruining the infrastructure or dilapidation of the school.

The proposed Constitution gives pride of place to the armed forces. It highlights the “sovereignty”, mantra of the junta since its advent and the break with the former French dominant power, as well as the fight against corruption, associated with the former regime. It legitimizes traditional authorities and enhances the status of the multitude of national languages. It creates a Senate.

It stands out above all by strengthening the President’s powers. It provides for amnesty for the perpetrators of coups d’état prior to its promulgation, and fuels persistent speculation on a possible candidacy of Colonel Goïta for the presidential election, despite the commitments initially made by the colonels not to run.

Low turnout
The reform crystallized the opposition of a heterogeneous bloc. Influential religious organizations opposed the maintenance of secularism. In the north, former rebels who, unlike the jihadists, have signed an important peace agreement with the state also denounce the terms of the Constitution and risk preventing the vote in their stronghold of Kidal.

A part of the political class has a problem with strengthening the executive. We have witnessed a personalization of power, a cult of personality. However, if a new Constitution is put in place, it must redress these excesses, balance the powers instead of concentrating them in the hands of the only president”, denounces Sidi Touré, spokesman of the Party for the national renaissance (Parena).

“The draft Constitution was made by the Malians”, defended the leader of the junta Tuesday, June 13, 2023 during a campaign meeting, assuring that the text was “the result of a consensual work of all sensitivities”.

Beyond the legitimacy of the text, that of the election is debated. Voters could be prevented from voting in a number of insecure areas, including in the centre and north where jihadist groups continue to carry out bloody attacks on civilians and the military.

“Mali has more urgent challenges, it is necessary to gather Malians for the war against terrorism, for the war against poverty,” said Sidi Touré.

A researcher speaking anonymously like many speakers now argues that the old Constitution has a good back. The problem with the 1992 constitution is that it has never really been applied (…) it cannot be the cause of the crisis”.

Participation is expected to be low
“Overall, Malians do not vote. Since 1992, the participation rate has rarely exceeded 30%,’ says political scientist Abdoul Sogodogo.

Observers consider the victory of the “yes”
‘Malians say that the presidents of democratic regimes have not necessarily shone. Corruption has reached a certain level. People want to see something else,” says Brema Ely Dicko, a sociologist at the University of Bamako. Supporters of the reform are counting on the strong popularity lent to Colonel Goïta and the so-called transitional authorities. Some actors present this referendum as support for the transition, so that the debate on content is hidden,” stresses Abdoul Sogodogo.

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MALI

MALI – Nigerian military leader’s first visit abroad to Bamako

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The head of the military regime in Niger, General Abdourahamane Tiani, landed on Thursday, November 23, 2023 in Bamako and is to meet his counterpart at the head of the Malian junta for his first international visit since the coup in Niamey, found a AFP correspondent.

Mali and Burkina, led by soldiers who came to power in coups in 2020 and 2022, had quickly shown their solidarity with the generals of Niamey after taking power in late July.

Together, they created a “Alliance of Sahel States” (AES) which provides mutual assistance in the event of an attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the three States and strengthened economic ties.

United against international pressure for a return to democratic regimes, the two military regimes are also united against the jihadists whose attacks are ravaging their country.

General Tiani is to stay a few hours in Bamako and meet the head of the Malian junta, Colonel Assimi Goïta, for a “friendship and work” visit, according to the Malian presidency.

The duration of the transition in Niger is not yet known, but General Tiani announced shortly after taking power that it would not exceed three years. In Mali, the presidential election scheduled for early 2024 has been postponed indefinitely.

A statement issued on Thursday morning indicates that Bamako will host from 23 November to 1 December two ministerial meetings “with a view to identifying prospects for the operationalization of the AES”, including the drafting of texts, the establishment of the bodies and the procedures for its operation.

The first will bring together the Ministers of Economy and Trade on 25 November for economic development issues. The foreign ministers of the three countries will meet on 30 November for political and diplomatic matters.

These meetings will precede a meeting of defence ministers at a later date.

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MALI

MALI – General El Hadj Ag Gamou appointed Governor of Kidal

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In Mali, General El Hadj Ag Gamou was appointed Wednesday, November 22, 2023 governor of the Kidal region. One week after the capture of the city, stronghold of the rebels of the CSP (Permanent Strategic Framework), by the Malian army and its proxies of Wagner, the appointment of this military leader Tuareg faithful to the Malian State reveals a strategy of the Malian transitional authorities.

General El Hadj Ag Gamou does not like to appear in public, but he is well known to all Malians, especially in the north. In 2012, while Tuareg army cadres deserted one by one to join the independence rebellion, the one who was still a colonel was the only one to remain faithful to Bamako.

Two years later, Gamou created the Tuareg Imghad and Allies Self-Defence Group (Gatia), a northern armed group, signatory to the future 2015 peace agreement, within the pro-State Malian Platform.

Distrust of the transitional authorities
Two years ago, in December 2021, the transitional Malian authorities disembark him from his post as inspector general of the armed forces. At the time, the CSP is not a rebellion, this coalition still brings together all the armed groups signatory to the peace agreement and the game of General Gamou within it is considered troubled by the leaders of the Transition. But mistrust does not last: today, Bamako is counting on him to bring the inhabitants of Kidal back into the fold of the State.

General Gamou is not from Kidal, but he knows the city and the region well, where he served for a long time. Above all, it is Imghad, a Tuareg fraction considered as «vassal» of that of the Ifoghas, who assumes the traditional leadership in Kidal and from which the main rebel leaders originate. «He is the one who will be able to gather», judges a Malian security source. «He will reassure the Tuaregs», says a close friend of General Gamou.

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MALI- Tuareg separatists deny the existence of a mass grave in Kidal

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Tuareg separatists have denied the existence of a mass grave that the Malian army claimed to have discovered last week in Kidal (north), a rebel stronghold city recently taken over by the junta and its allies.

These “allegations”, “obviously fabricated”, are “a pure diversion obviously intended to mask the horrible massacres committed by the terrorist duo Wagner-FAMa (Malian armed forces),” the separatists said in a statement, Wednesday, November 22, 2023.

“In the Kidal region, no allegations even in the form of rumours have ever been reported by any source about human rights violations by CSP-PSD forces,” an alliance of armed groups, they continued.

They denounce “a clumsy maneuver to ignore all the massacres perpetrated” by the Malian armed forces and their allies of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner, whose junta denies the presence.

The Malian army claimed to have discovered this mass grave on 16 November during security operations. This mass grave recalls the atrocities committed by terrorists without faith or law,” the army said, without further details.

After eight years of calm, hostilities resumed in August in northern Mali between regular forces and separatists.

The withdrawal of the UN Mission, pushed towards the exit by the junta in power, triggered a race for control of the territory, the central authorities demanding the return of the camps, the rebels opposing it.

The takeover in mid-November by the army of Kidal, bastion of the independence claim, is a symbolic success for the colonels who took power by force in 2020.

In the shadow of the fighting on the ground, the two sides also clash on social networks, including X (ex-Twitter), TikTok and Facebook, through support accounts, many of which have been created recently, against a background of misinformation.

“Each side gives its version of what is happening on the ground and discredits that of the opponent it presents as propaganda,” Seidik Abba, a Nigerian journalist and political analyst specializing in the Sahel, told AFP recently.

The ruling junta broke the historic military partnership with France and its European allies to turn to Russia and urged the UN mission to leave.

After the departure of French troops from the Gossi base in central Mali, the Malian army also announced that it had discovered “a mass grave” in 2022. The French army had immediately denounced a manipulation, and broadcast drone images showing, according to it, Russian mercenaries burying bodies a few days earlier.

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