Africa’s share of global natural gas production is expected to reach more than 11% in 2050 compared to 6% in 2021. But much of the continent’s output will be consumed locally, due to strong demand driven by accelerating economic growth and rapid urbanization.
Africa will be the only region in the world where natural gas production is expected to more than double by 2050, according to a report published on 29 January by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), an intergovernmental organization to defend the interests of major natural gas exporting countries.
The production of this fossil fuel on the continent is expected to increase from 260 billion m3 in 2021 to 585 billion m3 in 2050. This 125% jump corresponds to an average annual growth of 2.8%.
The report also reveals that Africa’s share of global natural gas production will increase from around 6% in 2021 to over 11% in 2050.
North America, the world’s largest gas producer, will maintain its position during the period under review. Natural gas production in the region is expected to increase by 285 billion m3 to 1420 billion m3 by 2050. However, its share of global production is expected to fall to 26% in 2050 from 28% in 2021.
The Middle East will become the world’s second largest natural gas producing region. This region is expected to provide nearly 22% of global production by 2050, compared to 17% currently (1,190 billion m3 in 2050 compared to 670 in 2021).
Eurasia’s share, which currently accounts for almost 25% of world production, is expected to fall to 20% by 2050. Production in this region is expected to grow by only 0.5% on average per year.
African demand to increase by 152% by 2050
Latin American production is expected to increase by 46% (65 billion m3) by 2050, an annual growth of 1.3%.
Europe will be the only region in the world where natural gas production is expected to fall in the coming decades. Its production will fall by an average of 2.9% per year by 2050, bringing the region’s share of global production to only 2%.
On a global scale, natural gas production is expected to increase by an average of 1.1% per year, from 4025 billion m3 in 2021 to 5460 billion m3 in 2050.
The “Global Gas Outlook 2050” report also reveals that natural gas demand is expected to increase by 36% over the coming decades to reach 5460 billion m3 by 2050. The share of natural gas in the global energy mix would increase from 23% in 2021 to 26% in 2050.
Asia-Pacific will be the largest driver of growth in natural gas demand, contributing about 50% of the net increase in global demand during the review period.
In Africa, demand is expected to grow by 152% to 415 billion m3 by 2050, driven by accelerated economic growth and urban population growth.
Conversely, demand for natural gas in Europe is expected to fall by 37% to 330 billion m3 by 2050, in a context of forced decarbonization of the economy on the Old Continent.
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum also estimates that investment in upstream gas (from early exploration to extraction of gas resources) is expected to reach $9.7 trillion globally by 2050. Of this amount, Africa is expected to attract $1.7 trillion in investment during the period under review.
Source : Agence Ecofin
