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ENERGY: Oil and gas are expected to cover more than 50% of global energy needs by 2045

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Oil and gas refinery at night

Many countries are increasingly turning to renewable energies such as hydro, wind, solar or biomass resources to reduce their consumption of hydrocarbons. But according to OPEC forecasts, oil and gas will still provide a significant share of the world’s energy needs by 2045.

50% of the world’s energy needs will be met by oil and gas by 2045. This was announced on January 19, 2021, by Mohamed Barkindo, Secretary General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), at a virtual forum of the Atlantic Council. Oil and gas combined are projected to cover more than 50% of global energy needs by 2045, with oil at around 27% and gas at 25%. “Renewable energy is maturing, with wind and solar growing rapidly, but even by 2045, we estimate that green energy will account for just over 20% of the global energy mix […]. At the same time, we do not see any realistic prospects in the scenarios that renewable energy will be on the verge of overtaking oil and gas in the coming decades,” he said.

These forecasts are similar to those of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In its 2020 report, the IEA projects that by 2040, global demand for natural gas will increase by 29% and meet 25% of total energy demand. As for the demand for oil, it will be 7% higher and will represent 28% of the energy consumed.

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Approximately 100 million barrels of oil are currently consumed worldwide every day. Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) plans to increase the use of renewable energy, energy efficiency improvements and more electric vehicles, oil will continue to meet the growing demand in transportation and the petrochemical industry, from which many everyday products such as mobile phones or sports shoes come.

It is difficult, according to the IEA, to say which countries consume the most energy because each of them uses different types of energy. But regardless of the source of energy, demand is growing. The world’s population is expected to increase by 2 billion human beings over the next two decades. Thus, with the improvement of living standards, the IEA estimates that by 2040, electricity production is expected to increase by 49%.

Currently, fossil fuels account for 80% of the energy consumed. The rest comes from various sources such as nuclear, biofuels, hydroelectricity, solar, wind and geothermal.

       

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